Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Very stable this week, added trade estimates

Just an FYI, the folks sent a picture to Rome of an ear out of their field in western Iowa, the slow way by mail. 18 rows around and full length. If things haven't changed, they will have a decent crop at $8+ a bu.

I've added the trade numbers for comparison. My harvested area for corn is roughly consistent with the middle of the trade range. Yield and harvesting rates should be inversely related in their estimates. I haven't adjusted my model to use percent deviations as discussed and I doubt I'll have the time to do it in advanced of September 12th. Soybean numbers are in the middle of the trade range and cotton production is roughly consistent with USDA production numbers. Cotton yields are significantly too high but interact inversely with area (similar to corn this year) and while I look at these when estimating the equations I do not adjust them during the year and tend to pay more attention to the production numbers in total.

Corn area harvested   85.205 million acres
USDA estimated corn area harvested 87.400

Corn Yield:  139.5 bu/ac

Corn Production:  11,888 million bushels
latest USDA Production: 10,773 million bushels 

Soybean Yield:  37.2 bu/ac
Soybean Production: 2,760 million bushels
latest USDA Production = 2,692

Cotton Yield:  838 lbs/ac
Cotton Production 17.974 million bales 
latest USDA Production = 17.650 million bales

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