Monday, February 1, 2010

Last estimates for the year.

I finished quite far away for corn, closer for beans and cotton. When I look back at what pushed me away from the USDA's final estimates for corn I see Illinois and Indiana yields. As I indicated in several earlier posts, I use planting progress as a 'terminal' yield limiter. The crop in Illinois and Indiana in my trigger week was significantly behind. This would normally put a critical period of crop development during what is normally a hot and dry part of the year. However, along with this late crop planting progress came a wet and cool year in those states as well. The slow planting progress was far to limiting a factor on yields is my conclusion.